The hottest year in 2020 or the turning point, Chi

2020 or approaching the inflection point, the latest data of the high and low temperature impact testing machine market of China's paper Jinan testing machine factory in the first half of the year will be released

release date: Source: exclusive printing industry (yuan Shujie, etc.) number of Views: 4374 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: paper production and supply are still dominated at home, and the proportion of imported paper in the domestic paper market will increase in the future. Internationally, the number of paper manufacturers is decreasing, the output is decreasing, and most of them adopt planned production, that is, paper agencies need to provide demand indicators to paper mills one year in advance, which requires early contact with foreign paper mills

[China Packaging News] on July 31, the 2019 paper market information exchange meeting of China's newspaper industry was held in Ordos, Inner Mongolia. According to the data released by the China Press Association at the meeting, the three major paper mills in China maintained normal production, and many importers increased their paper imports. Due to sufficient supply, paper prices quickly entered the downward channel, and the frequency and range of decline were large, resulting in great fluctuations in the entire paper market

the price of paper has entered the downward channel. In the first half of the year, the domestic paper output was 705800 tons

it is understood that from January to June this year, the national paper output was about 705800 tons, the sales were 621900 tons, and the inventory was 83900 tons. Due to the rapid rise in the price of domestic paper last year, domestic importers felt profitable and increased their paper imports one after another, with a total of about 226000 tons imported in the first half of this year. It can be seen that the paper supply in the first half of this year was 931800 tons. According to the recent statistical data of China Press Association on the paper consumption of 108 newspapers with a large amount of household paper in 2018 and the first half of 2019, 15 newspapers increased their paper consumption in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year, with a growth rate of 13.9%, mainly Central newspapers and some provincial and municipal Party newspapers; 87 newspapers reduced their paper consumption, with a reduction rate of 80.6%; There are 6 flat newspapers. The total paper consumption of these 108 newspapers in the first half of 2018 was 458000 tons, and the total paper consumption in the first half of 2019 was 414000 tons. The total paper consumption in the first half of 2019 was 44000 tons less than that in the first half of 2018, a decrease of 9.6%

due to oversupply, the current national average price of domestic paper is 5050 yuan/ton, down 1250 yuan from 6300 yuan/ton last year, and the average price of imported paper at this stage is about 4600 yuan/ton. The paper supply is sufficient and the price has decreased significantly, so the newspapers have increased their inventory. At present, the national newspaper paper inventory is about 2.3 months, far greater than the inventory of 1.2 months in the same period last year

in the second half of this year, with the existing three paper mills continuing to operate normally, Shandong Golden Ocean paper industry will resume paper production in August. Therefore, the China Newspaper Association predicts that the output of paper in the second half of this year will be higher than that in the first half of this year, about 780000 tons. In terms of imported paper, from the end of last year to the first half of this year, some importers were blindly optimistic without customers. A large number of imported paper led to oversupply in the paper market and a significant decline in prices. Therefore, importers had to digest inventory below the cost price. In view of this, importers will reduce import volume in the second half of this year. It is estimated that the import volume in the second half of this year will be about 150000 tons, lower than the import volume in the first half of this year. According to statistics, the total supply of paper in the second half of the year was about 930000 tons

according to the forecast data of the China Press Association, 108 newspapers predict that the total paper consumption this year is about 843000 tons, a decrease of 86000 tons or 9.3% from the actual paper consumption of 929000 tons last year. In 2018, the total consumption of newspaper paper in China was 1.661 million tons. Based on this calculation, the total consumption of newspaper paper in 2019 is expected to be about 1.507 million tons, while the annual supply of paper is expected to be about 1.86 million tons, with supply exceeding demand

market status: supply and demand are balanced, but the number of paper manufacturers decreases

☆ the total output of paper

fell from 3.85 million tons in 2012 to 1.33 million tons in 2018

☆ market supply and demand

it is estimated that 1.57 million tons of paper will be produced in 2019, with a total paper consumption of 1.58 million tons. With the amount of imported paper of about 150000 tons, the paper market will be slightly oversupplied in 2019

☆ manufacturers

at present, there are only four paper manufacturers in China

over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the newspaper market with the party newspaper as the main body has formed a considerable industrial scale after continuous growth and accumulation. However, with the rise of new media, the media pattern has undergone profound changes, and the survival of newspapers in traditional media is facing challenges. As the main raw material of newspapers, the development of paper market is closely related to the newspaper industry

the consumption of paper decreases year by year, and the price fluctuates greatly. In recent years, the suspension of newspapers and the reduction of pages in China's newspaper industry have led to a continuous decline in the demand for paper. Some paper production enterprises switched production and stopped production, resulting in a significant reduction in paper production, from 3.85 million tons in 2012 to 1.33 million tons in 2018. In history, China's paper prices have also experienced several major shocks, with the outstanding years being 1988, 1995, 2004 and 2008. In 1995, due to the expansion of the newspaper and the increase of labor costs, the price of paper soared from 4000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 6500 yuan/ton, and the highest market price reached 7500 yuan/ton. In recent years, the price of paper has fluctuated greatly, from 4100 yuan/ton in 2014 to 6350 yuan/ton in 2018, an increase of nearly 55%. The rise in price has brought great pressure to the newspaper industry

the supply and demand of domestic paper market are basically balanced. In 2017 and 2018, the domestic paper market fluctuated twice. Under the leadership of the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee, relevant ministries and commissions and the China Newspaper Association have done a lot of work to eliminate the adverse factors restricting paper production, so that the supply and demand of the domestic paper market are basically balanced. In 2017, the total supply of domestic and imported paper by pressing the "P clear/1" key was about 1.75 million tons, and the total demand was about 1.777 million tons, which was slightly less than the demand. In 2018, the total supply of domestic paper plus imported paper was about 1.686 million tons, and the total domestic demand was about 1.661 million tons, which was slightly larger than the demand. In 2019, four paper mills across the country are expected to produce 1.57 million tons of paper under the condition that the supply of raw materials is guaranteed, according to incomplete statistics from relevant departments. In terms of demand, of the 103 domestic newspapers, 35 are expected to increase their paper consumption compared with 2018, 51 to decrease, and 17 to remain the same. It is expected that their total paper consumption in 2019 will be 937000 tons, 48000 tons less than that in 2018. According to the calculation, the paper consumption of the national newspaper industry fell by 4.9% in 2019, about 1.58 million tons. If the quantity of imported paper is added, it is conservatively estimated to be about 150000 tons, and the paper market will be slightly oversupplied in 2019

paper manufacturers are decreasing year by year. In 2012, there were nearly 20 large and small paper mills in China. Due to the rising price of raw materials, tightening of environmental protection policies, restrictions on cargo transportation and other reasons, some paper mills withdrew from the paper market, and now there are only four remaining, namely, Huatai Paper, Guangzhou Paper Group, Shandong Golden Ocean paper and Shanying paper. In July, 2018, the China Newspaper Association learned through research that as the country's largest paper production enterprise, Huatai Paper has three branches in Shandong Huatai, Guangdong Huatai and Hebei Huatai, as well as six world-class paper machines, with an annual paper production capacity of 1.8 million tons; Shandong Golden Ocean Paper Co., Ltd. has two paper machines with an annual output of 200000 tons of paper

paper production raw materials are mainly waste paper imported from abroad. Restricted by the scarcity of domestic wood resources and the huge pressure of environmental protection, the raw materials of paper production in China in the past 10 years are mainly waste paper imported from abroad. Among the imported waste paper raw materials, American waste paper is the first choice, because North America is rich in forest resources, and American waste paper contains some raw wood pulp. At the same time, the fiber length of waste paper in the United States is long, and the quality of paper produced is guaranteed

industry trend: the slowdown in the supply of raw materials becomes a variable

☆ the downward trend is contained

the total volume of newspaper printing in China has decreased for six consecutive years since 2012, with a month on month decrease of more than 15% in 2015 and 2016, and the decline in 2018 contracted to 8.64%

☆ the ability to resist risks is weakened

the channel of raw materials production is relatively single

☆ paper enterprises prepare for transformation

most domestic paper production enterprises plan to change production

at present, the supply-demand relationship in the domestic paper market is basically in a balanced state, and the accelerated decline in paper usage has been curbed. However, compared with more than a decade ago, raw materials have become the largest variable affecting the stability of the paper market. In other words, the main contradiction in the paper market has changed from supply and demand to raw material supply

the declining trend of paper usage has been curbed. From the perspective of paper consumption, although it has entered the decline channel since 2012, the speed has slowed down. From 2013 to 2018, the month on month decline of paper consumption was 370000 tons, 310000 tons, 530000 tons, 330000 tons, 130000 tons and 110000 tons respectively. This trend is also supported by the statistical data of the national newspaper printing volume survey. In April this year, the relevant report released by the printing working committee of the China Newspaper Association showed that the total printing volume of newspapers across the country has decreased for six consecutive years since 2012, with a month on month decrease of more than 15% in 2015 and 2016, and the decline rate contracted to 8.64% in 2018. Judging from the overall trend, the accelerated decline in the total amount of newspaper printing has been contained. Among them, the total printing volume of Party newspapers and current affairs newspapers continued to remain stable in 2018, and urban newspapers were reduced, reduced and suspended from time to time

the market's ability to resist risks gradually weakened. At present, the raw material channel of paper production is relatively single. If the source is limited, it is very easy to cause severe market turbulence. For example, in the second half of 2017, due to the continuous tight supply of raw materials, the rapid rise in prices, the tightening of environmental protection policies and other factors, as well as the withdrawal of a paper mill, there was a "paper shortage" phenomenon in China. In May, 2018, the import channel of raw materials was further narrowed, and the paper market fluctuated again. The price rose twice, nearly 800 yuan per ton, reaching 6300 yuan/ton. In addition, there are only four domestic paper manufacturers left. If another manufacturer withdraws, the balance of market supply and demand will be broken. In short, the biggest challenge facing the domestic paper market is the weak ability to resist risks

paper production enterprises are preparing for transformation. Due to the unstable supply of raw materials, most domestic paper production enterprises plan to change production. In 2018, the China Newspaper Association found in its research that Shandong Golden Ocean Paper Co., Ltd. converted a paper machine into more profitable packaging paper after the 2018 Spring Festival. Shandong Shan county Tianyuan paper industry, which has been producing paper before, has not produced paper since 2018. In addition, Huatai Paper is also starting to transform some paper machines

development suggestions: coordinate and communicate to establish a strategic reserve bank

☆ continue to adhere to the department coordination and communication mechanism

☆ arrange the purchase of imported paper in advance

☆ establish the Strategic Reserve Bank of Party newspapers

with the environmental protection policy becoming clearer, the domestic paper market will usher in a turning point around 2020. Only by taking precautions and planning in advance can we resolve all possible risks

continue to adhere to the department coordination and communication mechanism. When the paper market fluctuated in 2017 and 2018, the Propaganda Department of the CPC Central Committee held multi department coordination meetings for many times